Turbulence, Conflict, and Three Scenarios of Global Future

The article expands the concept of turbulence through a combination of wars and revolutionary waves. The multipolarity of the modern world does not exclude hegemony with leadership, as well as the formation of coalitions, which in case of aggravation of conflicts can return the era of bipolarity. The centers of gravity are usually called the United States and China. The current period is interpreted as “prolonged turbulence”. Whether it will end with the breakdown of previous orders and the post-crisis establishment of new ones depends on the results of the complex interaction of trends, ideas, influential social and political movements and international interaction. Along with the types of historical dynamics “Lift” (contours of growth, prosperity) and “Well” (contours of degradation and disintegration), inertial, negative-confrontational and positive-reformist scenarios are identified. The conditions influencing the probabilities of their realization are defined. The three scenarios of the global future include: the inertial scenario, the negative–confrontational scenario with a collapse into a new world war, and the positive–reformist scenario as a transition to a lawful world order. The general global trend towards renewed militarization, which has its own explanation, is ambivalent in its consequences. It may lead to a new series of bloody wars, but in the case of certain solidarity efforts it will be a contribution to a lasting peace.